Erie County, NY
Housing, jobs, water, deposits and federal obligations for this county, each figure with the release it came from. Internal point 42.75, -78.78.
Assembled 2026-10-19. Read the brief.
- 69th pct · 934th of 3,063 US counties · median $230,451
- 60th pct · 25th of 62 New York counties · median $254,056
- counties in the Buffalo-Cheektowaga metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 2 counties in the Buffalo-Cheektowaga metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
- 57th pct · 1,306th of 3,062 US counties · median +2.9%
- 4th pct · 59th of 62 New York counties · median +5.6%
- counties in the Buffalo-Cheektowaga metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 2 counties in the Buffalo-Cheektowaga metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
- 47th pct · 712th of 1,358 US counties · median $1,506
- 39th pct · 30th of 49 New York counties · median $1,521
- counties in the Buffalo-Cheektowaga metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 2 counties in the Buffalo-Cheektowaga metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
- 98th pct · 58th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 91st pct · 6th of 62 New York counties · median 32,139
- counties in the Buffalo-Cheektowaga metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 2 counties in the Buffalo-Cheektowaga metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
- 89th pct · 336th of 3,221 US counties · median $1,039
- 75th pct · 16th of 62 New York counties · median $1,250
- counties in the Buffalo-Cheektowaga metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 2 counties in the Buffalo-Cheektowaga metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
- 46th pct · 1,624th of 3,063 US counties · median 4.2
- 45th pct · 34th of 62 New York counties · median 4.1
- counties in the Buffalo-Cheektowaga metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 2 counties in the Buffalo-Cheektowaga metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
Typical home value divided by the average annual wage of one covered job.
A percentile here is a min-max scaling of average rank: the smallest published value in the cohort is 0 and the largest is 100, and tied values share the average of the ranks they span. It is not the share of entities below the value, so 0 means smallest, not none below. Entities that did not publish the metric are outside the cohort entirely and are counted in neither the rank nor its denominator.
Home values #
Typical home $295,625 (Sep 2026), +3.4% over one year, +31.3% over five
- 69th pct · 934th of 3,063 US counties · median $230,451
- 60th pct · 25th of 62 New York counties · median $254,056
- counties in the Buffalo-Cheektowaga metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 2 counties in the Buffalo-Cheektowaga metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Erie County, NY | $295,625 · +3.4% 1-yr |
Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.
Rents #
Typical rent $1,480/mo (Sep 2026), +3.7% over one year; price-to-rent 16.7
- 47th pct · 712th of 1,358 US counties · median $1,506
- 39th pct · 30th of 49 New York counties · median $1,521
- counties in the Buffalo-Cheektowaga metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 2 counties in the Buffalo-Cheektowaga metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Erie County, NY | $1,480/mo · +3.7% 1-yr |
Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).
What the typical home costs to carry #
Principal and interest of $1,637 a month on $295,625 at 7.40%, against an average weekly wage worth $6,075 a month: 27.0% of one job’s pay.
- payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $295,625 × 80% = $236,500, r = 7.40%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-15), n = 360 → $1,637/mo principal and interest
- wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,402 × 52 / 12 = $6,075) = 27% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
- years of wages = $295,625 / ($1,402 × 52) = 4.1
- price-to-rent = $295,625 / ($1,480 × 12) = 16.7
The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.
Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.
Jobs & wages #
461,884 jobs at 24,838 employers (2026 Q1); +0.3% jobs and +2.1% average weekly wage over the year
- 98th pct · 58th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 91st pct · 6th of 62 New York counties · median 32,139
- counties in the Buffalo-Cheektowaga metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 2 counties in the Buffalo-Cheektowaga metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Erie County, NY | 461,884 jobs · $1,402/wk · +0.3% YoY |
| NAICS sector | Jobs | Avg weekly wage | Location quotient | Jobs over the year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health care and social assistance | 74,580 | $1,180 | 1.07 | +6.9% |
| Retail trade | 46,246 | $794 | 1.03 | -1.9% |
| Manufacturing | 41,285 | $1,755 | 1.11 | -3.9% |
| Accommodation and food services | 37,016 | $521 | 0.89 | -2.0% |
| Administrative and waste services | 24,788 | $1,110 | 0.94 | -3.9% |
| Professional and technical services | 23,727 | $1,688 | 0.74 | -4.4% |
| Finance and insurance | 22,740 | $2,620 | 1.21 | -1.4% |
| Transportation and warehousing | 20,693 | $1,052 | 1.06 | +2.5% |
| Construction | 18,128 | $1,644 | 0.75 | +9.0% |
| Wholesale trade | 16,134 | $1,969 | 0.91 | -2.6% |
| Other services | 15,192 | $787 | 1.10 | -2.4% |
| Educational services | 13,722 | $834 | 1.38 | +3.3% |
BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.
Drought #
D0 abnormally dry
Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.
US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.
Reservoirs #
No reservoir gauges within 150 km (or the camera is above the gauge altitude)
Sites found: 0, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.
Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.
Stream gauges #
32 gauges · 0 flooding · 6 with quality panels averaging 98 % · 7 stale
Sites found: 32, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
| Site | Reading | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| EIGHTEENMILE CREEK AT HAMBURG NY | flow 10.0 ft³/s | 8 km |
| CAZENOVIA CREEK AT EBENEZER NY | flow 22.5 ft³/s | 9 km |
| BUFFALO CREEK AT GARDENVILLE NY | flow 29.0 ft³/s | 11 km |
| S BR EIGHTEENMILE CR AT BLEY RD AT EDEN VALLEY | flow 9.47 ft³/s | 12 km |
| SCAJAQUADA CREEK AT BUFFALO NY | flow 3.90 ft³/s · STALE | 18 km |
| CAYUGA CREEK NEAR LANCASTER NY | flow 16.5 ft³/s | 19 km |
| USGS-425520078535601 | flow 0.01 ft³/s · STALE | 21 km |
| BIG SISTER CREEK AT EVANS CENTER NY | flow 2.91 ft³/s | 24 km |
| ELLICOTT CREEK BELOW WILLIAMSVILLE NY | flow 38.4 ft³/s | 25 km |
| CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT GOWANDA NY | flow 175.0 ft³/s · quality 100 % (5) | 35 km |
USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.
Groundwater #
14 wells in 0 named aquifers:
Sites found: 14, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
| Site | Reading | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| USGS-425704078360601 | depth 11.1 ft · 2022-04-20 | 26 km |
| USGS-430006078464101 | depth 19.8 ft · 2026-10-18 | 28 km |
| USGS-425430078292701 | depth 3.38 ft · 2026-10-18 | 29 km |
| USGS-422702079005101 | depth 31.9 ft · 2026-10-18 | 39 km |
| USGS-430739078502701 | depth 1.65 ft · 2026-10-18 | 42 km |
| USGS-424406078075301 | depth 2.65 ft · 2026-10-18 | 53 km |
| USGS-431308078544501 | depth 4.43 ft · 2026-10-18 | 53 km |
| USGS-430924078241301 | depth 40.4 ft · 2026-10-18 | 54 km |
USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.
Water stress #
low (0.01)
Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.00 + 0.2×0.02 / 0.55
Banks & federal dollars #
$63.3 bn in deposits at 202 offices of 20 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 4,555, highly concentrated. $8.1 bn federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $7.4 bn, grants $418.1 m), $17,515 per covered job
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company | $41.9 bn · 66.2% share · 44 offices | |
| KeyBank National Association | $6.2 bn · 9.8% share · 42 offices | |
| HSBC Bank USA, National Association | $3.4 bn · 5.4% share · 1 office | |
| Erie, NY | $8.1 bn FY2026 · $17,515/job | |
| MULTIPLE RECIPIENTS | $7.1 bn · top recipient FY2026 |
| Institution | Deposits | Share | Offices |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company | $41,864,915,000 | 66.2% | 44 |
| KeyBank National Association | $6,172,152,000 | 9.8% | 42 |
| HSBC Bank USA, National Association | $3,389,981,000 | 5.4% | 1 |
| Bank of America, National Association | $2,738,224,000 | 4.3% | 15 |
| Citizens Bank, National Association | $2,342,612,000 | 3.7% | 20 |
| Northwest Bank | $1,989,445,000 | 3.1% | 16 |
| NBT Bank, National Association | $1,575,690,000 | 2.5% | 13 |
| CNB Bank | $839,623,000 | 1.3% | 12 |
| Five Star Bank | $404,150,000 | 0.6% | 6 |
| Alden State Bank | $391,269,000 | 0.6% | 3 |
Deposit concentration is 4,555 across 19 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.
HHI = Σ (share %)² over 19 banks with deposits in the county = 66.2² + 9.8² + 5.4² + … (16 more) = 4,555
FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.
Federal obligations #
USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.
| Awarding agency | Obligations |
|---|---|
| Social Security Administration | $5,053,504,260 |
| Department of Health and Human Services | $1,728,243,235 |
| Department of Veterans Affairs | $487,078,101 |
| Department of Education | $190,492,830 |
| Department of Defense | $186,305,633 |
| Department of Housing and Urban Development | $183,776,345 |
| Department of Transportation | $143,410,414 |
| Railroad Retirement Board | $34,354,983 |
| Department of Homeland Security | $22,681,800 |
| Federal Communications Commission | $14,982,867 |
| National Science Foundation | $13,057,237 |
| Department of Justice | $10,225,151 |
That is $17,515 per covered job, against 461,884 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.
per job = FY2026 obligations $8.1 bn / 461,884 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $17,515
USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.
National context, not this county #
These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.
| Series | Latest | As of | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi River at Memphis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Mississippi River at St. Louis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Ohio River at Louisville, stage · ft | 17.95 | 2026-10-18 | -2.6% |
| Missouri River at St. Joseph, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Colorado River below Hoover Dam, flow (Hoover releases) · ft³/s | 5,170.00 | 2026-02-05 | -25.3% |
| Texas reservoirs, statewide percent full · % | 72.20 | 2026-10-19 | +0.0% |
| Laredo truck crossings, monthly · trucks | 258,700.00 | 2026-08-01 | -0.4% |
| Los Angeles + Long Beach container volume, annual · TEU | 10,513,167.00 | 2023-01-01 | -13.5% |
| Containerships waiting for a berth, all US ports · ships | 7.00 | 2026-10-13 | +133.3% |
| Shanghai to Los Angeles container rate · $ per 40 ft box | 7,848.00 | 2026-09-01 | +14.9% |
| US diesel retail price · $ per gallon | unavailable | not published | |
| WTI crude oil, spot · $ per barrel | 101.91 | 2026-10-14 | +1.0% |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate · % | 7.40 | 2026-10-15 | +0.0% |
| Housing starts, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,275.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.6% |
| Building permits, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,403.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.1% |
| Case-Shiller US home price index · index, Jan 2000 = 100 | 337.31 | 2026-07-01 | +0.1% |
| Unemployment rate · % | 4.20 | 2026-09-01 | +2.4% |
| US goods and services trade balance, monthly · $ millions | -105,572.00 | 2026-08-01 | -13.7% |
| Retail sales excluding food services, monthly · $ millions | 652,115.00 | 2026-09-01 | +0.7% |
The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.
What changed #
Erie County, NY: 10 findings, 1 at a watch level and 9 noted
watchErie County, NY's typical home value of +3.4% scores 57 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 5 across New York counties, a gap of 52 points.
Period 2026-09.Show the arithmetic
- 52 = |57 across US counties - 5 across New York counties|
position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level
noteErie County, NY's average weekly wage was 2.1% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- +2.1 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
- the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published
noteErie County, NY's typical asking rent rose 0.3% from $1,474 in August 2026 to $1,480 in September 2026, on Zillow ZORI.
Period 2026-09.Show the arithmetic
- +0.3% = (1479.5487507164235 - 1474.4504098766354) / 1474.4504098766354 × 100
- 1479.5487507164235 = Zillow ZORI, 2026-09
- 1474.4504098766354 = Zillow ZORI, 2026-08
noteErie County, NY's covered employment was 0.3% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- +0.3 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
- the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published
noteErie County, NY's covered employment of 461,884 ranks 58th of 3,221 US counties, against a median of 8,232.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- 98 on the 0-to-100 scale across 3221 US counties that published jobs.emp
position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level
Read all 10 findings in the full brief
Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.