Carter County, OK

Home values #

Typical home $179,084 (Sep 2026), +1.0% over one year, +27.6% over five

• 29th pct · 2,170th of 3,063 US counties · median $230,451
• 61st pct · 30th of 77 Oklahoma counties · median $164,118

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.

Rents #

Typical rent $1,115/mo (Sep 2026), -2.5% over one year; price-to-rent 13.4

• 15th pct · 1,149th of 1,358 US counties · median $1,506
• 37th pct · 18th of 28 Oklahoma counties · median $1,258

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).

What the typical home costs to carry #

Principal and interest of $992 a month on $179,084 at 7.40%, against an average weekly wage worth $4,455 a month: 22.3% of one job’s pay.

• payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $179,084 × 80% = $143,267, r = 7.40%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-15), n = 360 → $992/mo principal and interest
• wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,028 × 52 / 12 = $4,455) = 22% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
• years of wages = $179,084 / ($1,028 × 52) = 3.4
• price-to-rent = $179,084 / ($1,115 × 12) = 13.4

The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.

Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.

Jobs & wages #

22,400 jobs at 1,709 employers (2026 Q1); -5.4% jobs and +1.6% average weekly wage over the year

• 73rd pct · 859th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
• 86th pct · 11th of 77 Oklahoma counties · median 7,282

BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.

Drought #

D1 moderate drought

Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.

US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.

Reservoirs #

88 % of conservation capacity, weighted over 13 TWDB reservoirs

Sites found: 26, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.

Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.

Stream gauges #

43 gauges · 0 flooding · 1 with quality panels averaging 75 % · 13 stale

Sites found: 43, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.

Groundwater #

29 wells in 3 named aquifers: Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer, Edwards-Trinity aquifer system, Alluvial aquifers

Sites found: 29, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.

Water stress #

low (0.20)

Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.25 + 0.3×0.12 + 0.2×0.25 / 0.85

Banks & federal dollars #

$1.6 bn in deposits at 23 offices of 8 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 1,919, highly concentrated. $342.3 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $313.7 m, contracts $19.2 m), $15,280 per covered job

Deposit concentration is 1,919 across 8 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.

HHI = Σ (share %)² over 8 banks with deposits in the county = 23.4² + 21.7² + 21.0² + … (5 more) = 1,919

FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.

Federal obligations #

USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.

That is $15,280 per covered job, against 22,400 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.

per job = FY2026 obligations $342.3 m / 22,400 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $15,280

USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.

National context, not this county #

These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.

The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.

What changed #

Carter County, OK: 14 findings, 1 at an alert level, 3 at a watch level and 10 noted

1. alertCarter County, OK's covered employment is -5.4% against a year earlier, an alert level here: covered employment at least 3 percent below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.emp = -5.4 <= -3

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

2. watchCarter County, OK's covered employment is -5.4% against a year earlier, a watch level here: covered employment below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.emp = -5.4 < 0

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level

3. watchCarter County, OK's typical asking rent is -1.8% against the previous month, a watch level here: typical asking rent at least 1 percent below the previous month (arithmetic on the Zillow ZORI month columns; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: rent.momPct = -1.8098161101978145 <= -1
   • month-over-month percent change = (newest month − previous month) / |previous month| × 100, from Zillow's own published month columns

   arithmetic on the Zillow ZORI month columns; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

4. watchCarter County, OK's typical home value of $179,084 scores 29 on the 0-to-100 scale across US counties but 62 across Oklahoma counties, a gap of 33 points.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • 33 = |29 across US counties - 62 across Oklahoma counties|

   position among the entities that published this metric this period; not an official level

5. noteCarter County, OK's covered employment was 5.4% lower than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • -5.4 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
   • the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published

Read all 12 findings in the full brief

Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.