Atascosa County, TX

Home values #

Typical home $242,697 (Sep 2026), +0.6% over one year, -0.0% over five

• 54th pct · 1,409th of 3,063 US counties · median $230,451
• 65th pct · 85th of 243 Texas counties · median $207,861
• 0th pct · 8th of 8 counties in the San Antonio-New Braunfels metro · median $322,764

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.

Rents #

Typical rent $1,278/mo (Sep 2026), n/a over one year; price-to-rent 15.8

• 28th pct · 975th of 1,358 US counties · median $1,506
• 20th pct · 78th of 98 Texas counties · median $1,449
• 14th pct · 7th of 8 counties in the San Antonio-New Braunfels metro · median $1,474

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).

What the typical home costs to carry #

Principal and interest of $1,344 a month on $242,697 at 7.40%, against an average weekly wage worth $5,495 a month: 24.5% of one job’s pay.

• payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $242,697 × 80% = $194,157, r = 7.40%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-15), n = 360 → $1,344/mo principal and interest
• wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,268 × 52 / 12 = $5,495) = 24% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
• years of wages = $242,697 / ($1,268 × 52) = 3.7
• price-to-rent = $242,697 / ($1,278 × 12) = 15.8

The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.

Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.

Jobs & wages #

14,124 jobs at 927 employers (2026 Q1); -3.9% jobs and -1.2% average weekly wage over the year

• 63rd pct · 1,185th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
• 70th pct · 76th of 254 Texas counties · median 6,022
• 42nd pct · 5th of 8 counties in the San Antonio-New Braunfels metro · median 17,217

BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.

Drought #

D2 severe drought

Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.

US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.

Reservoirs #

Surface water layer not loaded

Sites found: 5, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.

Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.

Stream gauges #

Surface water layer not loaded

Sites found: 0, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.

Groundwater #

No USGS monitoring wells within 75 km (or above 1,500 km)

Sites found: 0, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.

Water stress #

moderate (0.49)

Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.50 + 0.3×0.49 / 0.65

Banks & federal dollars #

$783.2 m in deposits at 11 offices of 10 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 1,388, moderately concentrated. $279.8 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $276.6 m, grants $2.9 m), $19,809 per covered job

Deposit concentration is 1,388 across 10 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls moderately concentrated.

HHI = Σ (share %)² over 10 banks with deposits in the county = 22.3² + 15.3² + 13.9² + … (7 more) = 1,388

FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.

Federal obligations #

USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.

That is $19,809 per covered job, against 14,124 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.

per job = FY2026 obligations $279.8 m / 14,124 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $19,809

USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.

National context, not this county #

These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.

The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.

What changed #

Atascosa County, TX: 19 findings, 1 at an alert level, 4 at a watch level and 14 noted

1. alertAtascosa County, TX's covered employment is -3.9% against a year earlier, an alert level here: covered employment at least 3 percent below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.emp = -3.9 <= -3

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

2. watchAtascosa County, TX's covered employment is -3.9% against a year earlier, a watch level here: covered employment below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.emp = -3.9 < 0

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level

3. watchAtascosa County, TX's average weekly wage is -1.2% against a year earlier, a watch level here: average weekly wage below the same quarter a year earlier, before inflation (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published, nominal dollars; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.avgWeeklyWage = -1.2 < 0

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published, nominal dollars; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

4. watchAtascosa County, TX's typical asking rent is -2.1% against the previous month, a watch level here: typical asking rent at least 1 percent below the previous month (arithmetic on the Zillow ZORI month columns; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: rent.momPct = -2.118556825755854 <= -1
   • month-over-month percent change = (newest month − previous month) / |previous month| × 100, from Zillow's own published month columns

   arithmetic on the Zillow ZORI month columns; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

5. watchAtascosa County, TX's momentum index is -0.39, a watch level here: momentum index in the cooling band (the cooling band of the momentum index computed here, score at or below -0.25; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: momentum = -0.389823244042659 <= -0.25
   • momentum = Σ wᵢ · clip(changeᵢ / scaleᵢ, −1, 1) / Σ wᵢ over the terms present; weights and scales: home value 1-yr change 0.3 (±10%), rent 1-yr change 0.15 (±10%), jobs over-the-year change 0.3 (±3%), avg weekly wage over-the-year change 0.25 (±6%)

   the cooling band of the momentum index computed here, score at or below -0.25; convention chosen for this dashboard, not an official level

Read all 12 findings in the full brief

Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.