Stafford County, VA
Housing, jobs, water, deposits and federal obligations for this county, each figure with the release it came from. Internal point 38.42, -77.46.
Assembled 2026-10-19. Read the brief.
- 94th pct · 158th of 3,063 US counties · median $230,451
- 90th pct · 13th of 133 Virginia counties · median $309,231
- 45th pct · 13th of 23 counties in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro · median $562,284
- 25th pct · 2,270th of 3,062 US counties · median +2.9%
- 9th pct · 120th of 133 Virginia counties · median +2.8%
- 27th pct · 17th of 23 counties in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro · median +1.6%
- 92nd pct · 96th of 1,358 US counties · median $1,506
- 92nd pct · 6th of 71 Virginia counties · median $1,806
- 66th pct · 8th of 22 counties in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro · median $2,255
- 84th pct · 498th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 88th pct · 16th of 133 Virginia counties · median 9,944
- 59th pct · 10th of 23 counties in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro · median 38,075
- 84th pct · 489th of 3,221 US counties · median $1,039
- 79th pct · 27th of 133 Virginia counties · median $1,048
- 40th pct · 14th of 23 counties in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro · median $1,341
- 92nd pct · 222nd of 3,063 US counties · median 4.2
- 86th pct · 19th of 133 Virginia counties · median 5.4
- 59th pct · 10th of 23 counties in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro · median 7.1
Typical home value divided by the average annual wage of one covered job.
A percentile here is a min-max scaling of average rank: the smallest published value in the cohort is 0 and the largest is 100, and tied values share the average of the ranks they span. It is not the share of entities below the value, so 0 means smallest, not none below. Entities that did not publish the metric are outside the cohort entirely and are counted in neither the rank nor its denominator.
Home values #
Typical home $534,189 (Sep 2026), +0.6% over one year, +20.0% over five
- 94th pct · 158th of 3,063 US counties · median $230,451
- 90th pct · 13th of 133 Virginia counties · median $309,231
- 45th pct · 13th of 23 counties in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro · median $562,284
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Stafford County, VA | $534,189 · +0.6% 1-yr |
Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.
Rents #
Typical rent $2,360/mo (Sep 2026), +1.5% over one year; price-to-rent 18.9
- 92nd pct · 96th of 1,358 US counties · median $1,506
- 92nd pct · 6th of 71 Virginia counties · median $1,806
- 66th pct · 8th of 22 counties in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro · median $2,255
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Stafford County, VA | $2,360/mo · +1.5% 1-yr |
Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).
What the typical home costs to carry #
Principal and interest of $2,959 a month on $534,189 at 7.40%, against an average weekly wage worth $5,633 a month: 52.5% of one job’s pay.
- payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $534,189 × 80% = $427,351, r = 7.40%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-15), n = 360 → $2,959/mo principal and interest
- wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,300 × 52 / 12 = $5,633) = 53% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
- years of wages = $534,189 / ($1,300 × 52) = 7.9
- price-to-rent = $534,189 / ($2,360 × 12) = 18.9
The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.
Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.
Jobs & wages #
50,695 jobs at 3,469 employers (2026 Q1); -1.2% jobs and +0.9% average weekly wage over the year
- 84th pct · 498th of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 88th pct · 16th of 133 Virginia counties · median 9,944
- 59th pct · 10th of 23 counties in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro · median 38,075
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Stafford County, VA | 50,695 jobs · $1,300/wk · -1.2% YoY |
| NAICS sector | Jobs | Avg weekly wage | Location quotient | Jobs over the year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transportation and warehousing | 5,952 | $906 | 2.79 | -6.0% |
| Retail trade | 5,549 | $751 | 1.12 | -2.3% |
| Health care and social assistance | 4,841 | $1,063 | 0.63 | +4.6% |
| Professional and technical services | 3,901 | $2,177 | 1.12 | -4.6% |
| Construction | 3,797 | $935 | 1.43 | +3.9% |
| Accommodation and food services | 3,705 | $446 | 0.81 | +6.7% |
| Finance and insurance | 2,907 | $1,671 | 1.41 | +7.5% |
| Other services | 1,942 | $877 | 1.28 | +2.4% |
| Administrative and waste services | 1,844 | $940 | 0.64 | -7.8% |
| Wholesale trade | 788 | $1,485 | 0.41 | +0.0% |
| Educational services | 663 | $916 | 0.61 | -9.5% |
| Arts, entertainment and recreation | 579 | $379 | 0.69 | -7.2% |
BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.
Water #
Banks & federal dollars #
$1.5 bn in deposits at 16 offices of 9 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 1,635, moderately concentrated. $1.7 bn federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $1.1 bn, contracts $565.1 m), $33,627 per covered job
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo Bank, National Association | $330.8 m · 22.1% share · 2 offices | |
| Truist Bank | $328.2 m · 21.9% share · 2 offices | |
| PNC Bank, National Association | $256.1 m · 17.1% share · 2 offices | |
| Stafford, VA | $1.7 bn FY2026 · $33,627/job | |
| MULTIPLE RECIPIENTS | $1.1 bn · top recipient FY2026 |
| Institution | Deposits | Share | Offices |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo Bank, National Association | $330,797,000 | 22.1% | 2 |
| Truist Bank | $328,219,000 | 21.9% | 2 |
| PNC Bank, National Association | $256,126,000 | 17.1% | 2 |
| Bank of America, National Association | $205,252,000 | 13.7% | 1 |
| Carter Bank & Trust | $174,645,000 | 11.7% | 3 |
| Atlantic Union Bank | $75,933,000 | 5.1% | 1 |
| United Bank | $50,748,000 | 3.4% | 1 |
| JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association | $39,448,000 | 2.6% | 3 |
| Citizens and Farmers Bank | $36,218,000 | 2.4% | 1 |
Deposit concentration is 1,635 across 9 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls moderately concentrated.
HHI = Σ (share %)² over 9 banks with deposits in the county = 22.1² + 21.9² + 17.1² + … (6 more) = 1,635
FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.
Federal obligations #
USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.
| Awarding agency | Obligations |
|---|---|
| Social Security Administration | $562,681,036 |
| Department of Veterans Affairs | $559,687,913 |
| Department of Defense | $454,648,267 |
| Department of Transportation | $36,676,710 |
| Department of Homeland Security | $34,126,280 |
| General Services Administration | $21,237,514 |
| Department of Justice | $18,671,938 |
| Department of Housing and Urban Development | $5,509,509 |
| Department of Health and Human Services | $5,347,111 |
| Department of Agriculture | $2,328,876 |
| Department of Education | $1,514,586 |
| Railroad Retirement Board | $1,277,701 |
That is $33,627 per covered job, against 50,695 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.
per job = FY2026 obligations $1.7 bn / 50,695 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $33,627
USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.
National context, not this county #
These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.
| Series | Latest | As of | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi River at Memphis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Mississippi River at St. Louis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Ohio River at Louisville, stage · ft | 17.95 | 2026-10-18 | -2.6% |
| Missouri River at St. Joseph, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Colorado River below Hoover Dam, flow (Hoover releases) · ft³/s | 5,170.00 | 2026-02-05 | -25.3% |
| Texas reservoirs, statewide percent full · % | 72.20 | 2026-10-19 | +0.0% |
| Laredo truck crossings, monthly · trucks | 258,700.00 | 2026-08-01 | -0.4% |
| Los Angeles + Long Beach container volume, annual · TEU | 10,513,167.00 | 2023-01-01 | -13.5% |
| Containerships waiting for a berth, all US ports · ships | 7.00 | 2026-10-13 | +133.3% |
| Shanghai to Los Angeles container rate · $ per 40 ft box | 7,848.00 | 2026-09-01 | +14.9% |
| US diesel retail price · $ per gallon | unavailable | not published | |
| WTI crude oil, spot · $ per barrel | 101.91 | 2026-10-14 | +1.0% |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate · % | 7.40 | 2026-10-15 | +0.0% |
| Housing starts, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,275.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.6% |
| Building permits, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,403.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.1% |
| Case-Shiller US home price index · index, Jan 2000 = 100 | 337.31 | 2026-07-01 | +0.1% |
| Unemployment rate · % | 4.20 | 2026-09-01 | +2.4% |
| US goods and services trade balance, monthly · $ millions | -105,572.00 | 2026-08-01 | -13.7% |
| Retail sales excluding food services, monthly · $ millions | 652,115.00 | 2026-09-01 | +0.7% |
The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.
What changed #
Stafford County, VA: 13 findings, 2 at a watch level and 11 noted
watchStafford County, VA's years of wages of 7.9 ranks 222nd of 3,063 US counties, a watch level here: years of wages in the top tenth of US counties (position among the counties that published both a ZHVI value and a QCEW average weekly wage; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026-09.Show the arithmetic
- test: yearsOfWages percentile = 92.78249510124101 >= 90
- typical home value / (average weekly wage × 52); one average covered job, not a household
position among the counties that published both a ZHVI value and a QCEW average weekly wage; not an official level
watchStafford County, VA's covered employment is -1.2% against a year earlier, a watch level here: covered employment below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- test: jobs.yoy.emp = -1.2 < 0
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level
noteStafford County, VA's covered employment was 1.2% lower than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- -1.2 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
- the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published
noteStafford County, VA's average weekly wage was 0.9% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- +0.9 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
- the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published
noteStafford County, VA's typical asking rent rose 0.4% from $2,352 in August 2026 to $2,360 in September 2026, on Zillow ZORI.
Period 2026-09.Show the arithmetic
- +0.4% = (2359.908978118656 - 2351.57622683336) / 2351.57622683336 × 100
- 2359.908978118656 = Zillow ZORI, 2026-09
- 2351.57622683336 = Zillow ZORI, 2026-08
Read all 12 findings in the full brief
Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.