Grayson County, TX
Housing, jobs, water, deposits and federal obligations for this county, each figure with the release it came from. Internal point 33.62, -96.68.
Assembled 2026-10-19. Read the brief.
- 65th pct · 1,061st of 3,063 US counties · median $230,451
- 77th pct · 55th of 243 Texas counties · median $207,861
- counties in the Sherman-Denison metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 1 counties in the Sherman-Denison metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
- 4th pct · 2,922nd of 3,062 US counties · median +2.9%
- 11th pct · 215th of 243 Texas counties · median +0.1%
- counties in the Sherman-Denison metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 1 counties in the Sherman-Denison metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
- 36th pct · 862nd of 1,358 US counties · median $1,506
- 39th pct · 60th of 98 Texas counties · median $1,449
- counties in the Sherman-Denison metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 1 counties in the Sherman-Denison metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
- 85th pct · 483rd of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 87th pct · 33rd of 254 Texas counties · median 6,022
- counties in the Sherman-Denison metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 1 counties in the Sherman-Denison metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
- 75th pct · 787th of 3,221 US counties · median $1,039
- 62nd pct · 96th of 254 Texas counties · median $1,115
- counties in the Sherman-Denison metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 1 counties in the Sherman-Denison metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
- 55th pct · 1,354th of 3,063 US counties · median 4.2
- 74th pct · 63rd of 243 Texas counties · median 3.5
- counties in the Sherman-Denison metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 1 counties in the Sherman-Denison metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
Typical home value divided by the average annual wage of one covered job.
A percentile here is a min-max scaling of average rank: the smallest published value in the cohort is 0 and the largest is 100, and tied values share the average of the ranks they span. It is not the share of entities below the value, so 0 means smallest, not none below. Entities that did not publish the metric are outside the cohort entirely and are counted in neither the rank nor its denominator.
Home values #
Typical home $280,311 (Sep 2026), -4.6% over one year, +8.8% over five
- 65th pct · 1,061st of 3,063 US counties · median $230,451
- 77th pct · 55th of 243 Texas counties · median $207,861
- counties in the Sherman-Denison metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 1 counties in the Sherman-Denison metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Grayson County, TX | $280,311 · -4.6% 1-yr |
Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.
Rents #
Typical rent $1,358/mo (Sep 2026), -1.8% over one year; price-to-rent 17.2
- 36th pct · 862nd of 1,358 US counties · median $1,506
- 39th pct · 60th of 98 Texas counties · median $1,449
- counties in the Sherman-Denison metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 1 counties in the Sherman-Denison metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Grayson County, TX | $1,358/mo · -1.8% 1-yr |
Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).
What the typical home costs to carry #
Principal and interest of $1,553 a month on $280,311 at 7.40%, against an average weekly wage worth $5,183 a month: 30.0% of one job’s pay.
- payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $280,311 × 80% = $224,249, r = 7.40%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-15), n = 360 → $1,553/mo principal and interest
- wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,196 × 52 / 12 = $5,183) = 30% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
- years of wages = $280,311 / ($1,196 × 52) = 4.5
- price-to-rent = $280,311 / ($1,358 × 12) = 17.2
The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.
Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.
Jobs & wages #
54,295 jobs at 3,284 employers (2026 Q1); +3.4% jobs and +2.0% average weekly wage over the year
- 85th pct · 483rd of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
- 87th pct · 33rd of 254 Texas counties · median 6,022
- counties in the Sherman-Denison metro: Rank context is unavailable: the manifest lists 1 counties in the Sherman-Denison metro; fewer than 5 is too few to rank.
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Grayson County, TX | 54,295 jobs · $1,196/wk · +3.4% YoY |
| NAICS sector | Jobs | Avg weekly wage | Location quotient | Jobs over the year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health care and social assistance | 9,710 | $1,305 | 1.19 | +3.4% |
| Manufacturing | 8,774 | $1,625 | 2.01 | +7.6% |
| Retail trade | 6,280 | $780 | 1.19 | +0.8% |
| Accommodation and food services | 5,231 | $434 | 1.07 | +2.8% |
| Construction | 3,802 | $1,376 | 1.34 | +1.7% |
| Administrative and waste services | 3,208 | $1,098 | 1.04 | +6.1% |
| Professional and technical services | 1,379 | $1,236 | 0.37 | +7.7% |
| Wholesale trade | 1,337 | $1,696 | 0.64 | +3.2% |
| Finance and insurance | 1,232 | $1,932 | 0.56 | -1.5% |
| Transportation and warehousing | 1,103 | $1,191 | 0.48 | -7.7% |
| Other services | 891 | $1,420 | 0.55 | -1.3% |
| Educational services | 616 | $1,093 | 0.53 | +6.4% |
BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.
Drought #
D1 moderate drought
Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.
US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.
Reservoirs #
Surface water layer not loaded
Sites found: 28, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.
| Site | Reading | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Lake Texoma | 95 % full · 1,244k ac-ft | 24 km |
| Ray Roberts Lake | 94 % full · 788k ac-ft | 46 km |
| Lake Bonham | 76 % full · 11k ac-ft | 47 km |
| Moss Lake | 99 % full · 24k ac-ft | 53 km |
| Bois d'Arc Lake | 88 % full · 368k ac-ft | 66 km |
| Lewisville Lake | 83 % full · 563k ac-ft | 67 km |
| Lavon Lake | 80 % full · 410k ac-ft | 68 km |
| Grapevine Lake | 92 % full · 163k ac-ft | 81 km |
Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.
Stream gauges #
Surface water layer not loaded
Sites found: 0, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.
Groundwater #
No USGS monitoring wells within 75 km (or above 1,500 km)
Sites found: 0, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.
USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.
Water stress #
low (0.20)
Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.25 + 0.3×0.14 / 0.65
Banks & federal dollars #
$4.1 bn in deposits at 40 offices of 17 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 2,095, highly concentrated. $953.8 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $929.3 m, grants $19.5 m), $17,567 per covered job
| Item | Value | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| First United Bank and Trust Company | $1.6 bn · 38.7% share · 7 offices | |
| SouthState Bank, National Association | $697.2 m · 17.0% share · 5 offices | |
| Simmons Bank | $533.8 m · 13.0% share · 5 offices | |
| Grayson, TX | $953.8 m FY2026 · $17,567/job | |
| MULTIPLE RECIPIENTS | $897.3 m · top recipient FY2026 |
| Institution | Deposits | Share | Offices |
|---|---|---|---|
| First United Bank and Trust Company | $1,586,457,000 | 38.7% | 7 |
| SouthState Bank, National Association | $697,164,000 | 17.0% | 5 |
| Simmons Bank | $533,753,000 | 13.0% | 5 |
| JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association | $338,452,000 | 8.3% | 1 |
| First State Bank | $196,230,000 | 4.8% | 3 |
| Cendera Bank | $160,743,000 | 3.9% | 1 |
| The Huntington National Bank | $140,872,000 | 3.4% | 3 |
| Legend Bank, N.A. | $132,902,000 | 3.2% | 3 |
| Texas Bank | $79,961,000 | 2.0% | 2 |
| The First National Bank of Tom Bean | $56,901,000 | 1.4% | 1 |
Deposit concentration is 2,095 across 17 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.
HHI = Σ (share %)² over 17 banks with deposits in the county = 38.7² + 17.0² + 13.0² + … (14 more) = 2,095
FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.
Federal obligations #
USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.
| Awarding agency | Obligations |
|---|---|
| Social Security Administration | $732,294,636 |
| Department of Veterans Affairs | $150,326,144 |
| Department of Housing and Urban Development | $17,787,465 |
| Railroad Retirement Board | $15,455,538 |
| Department of Transportation | $14,716,338 |
| Department of Education | $13,775,115 |
| Department of Agriculture | $4,783,168 |
| Department of Defense | $2,690,824 |
| Department of the Interior | $510,761 |
| Federal Communications Commission | $453,888 |
| General Services Administration | $427,640 |
| Department of Health and Human Services | $391,397 |
That is $17,567 per covered job, against 54,295 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.
per job = FY2026 obligations $953.8 m / 54,295 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $17,567
USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.
National context, not this county #
These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.
| Series | Latest | As of | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi River at Memphis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Mississippi River at St. Louis, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Ohio River at Louisville, stage · ft | 17.95 | 2026-10-18 | -2.6% |
| Missouri River at St. Joseph, stage · ft | not published | not published | |
| Colorado River below Hoover Dam, flow (Hoover releases) · ft³/s | 5,170.00 | 2026-02-05 | -25.3% |
| Texas reservoirs, statewide percent full · % | 72.20 | 2026-10-19 | +0.0% |
| Laredo truck crossings, monthly · trucks | 258,700.00 | 2026-08-01 | -0.4% |
| Los Angeles + Long Beach container volume, annual · TEU | 10,513,167.00 | 2023-01-01 | -13.5% |
| Containerships waiting for a berth, all US ports · ships | 7.00 | 2026-10-13 | +133.3% |
| Shanghai to Los Angeles container rate · $ per 40 ft box | 7,848.00 | 2026-09-01 | +14.9% |
| US diesel retail price · $ per gallon | unavailable | not published | |
| WTI crude oil, spot · $ per barrel | 101.91 | 2026-10-14 | +1.0% |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate · % | 7.40 | 2026-10-15 | +0.0% |
| Housing starts, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,275.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.6% |
| Building permits, annual rate · thousands of units | 1,403.00 | 2026-08-01 | -2.1% |
| Case-Shiller US home price index · index, Jan 2000 = 100 | 337.31 | 2026-07-01 | +0.1% |
| Unemployment rate · % | 4.20 | 2026-09-01 | +2.4% |
| US goods and services trade balance, monthly · $ millions | -105,572.00 | 2026-08-01 | -13.7% |
| Retail sales excluding food services, monthly · $ millions | 652,115.00 | 2026-09-01 | +0.7% |
The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.
What changed #
Grayson County, TX: 9 findings, 1 at a watch level and 8 noted
watchGrayson County, TX's typical home value is -4.6% against a year earlier, a watch level here: typical home value below a year ago (arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.
Period 2026-09.Show the arithmetic
- test: home.yoyPct = -4.61463329345857 < 0
arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level
noteGrayson County, TX's covered employment was 3.4% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- +3.4 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
- the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published
noteGrayson County, TX's average weekly wage was 2.0% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.
Period 2026 Q1.Show the arithmetic
- +2 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
- the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed
BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published
noteGrayson County, TX's typical asking rent rose 0.9% from $1,346 in August 2026 to $1,358 in September 2026, on Zillow ZORI.
Period 2026-09.Show the arithmetic
- +0.9% = (1358.408249102458 - 1345.6365521541693) / 1345.6365521541693 × 100
- 1358.408249102458 = Zillow ZORI, 2026-09
- 1345.6365521541693 = Zillow ZORI, 2026-08
noteGrayson County, TX's typical home value fell 0.5% from $281,646 in August 2026 to $280,311 in September 2026, on Zillow ZHVI.
Period 2026-09.Show the arithmetic
- -0.5% = (280311.17210249574 - 281645.53951931227) / 281645.53951931227 × 100
- 280311.17210249574 = Zillow ZHVI, 2026-09
- 281645.53951931227 = Zillow ZHVI, 2026-08
Read all 9 findings in the full brief
Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.