Polk County, TX

Home values #

Typical home $174,922 (Sep 2026), -4.6% over one year, +1.9% over five

• 27th pct · 2,230th of 3,063 US counties · median $230,451
• 36th pct · 154th of 243 Texas counties · median $207,861

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile, smoothed and seasonally adjusted; a model estimate of value, not a sale price. Data through Zillow Research.

Rents #

Typical rent $1,411/mo (Sep 2026), +1.2% over one year; price-to-rent 10.3

• 41st pct · 796th of 1,358 US counties · median $1,506
• 44th pct · 55th of 98 Texas counties · median $1,449

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), smoothed, all homes and multifamily; price-to-rent = typical home / (typical rent × 12).

What the typical home costs to carry #

Principal and interest of $969 a month on $174,922 at 7.40%, against an average weekly wage worth $4,442 a month: 21.8% of one job’s pay.

• payment = P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n), P = $174,922 × 80% = $139,938, r = 7.40%/12 (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, 2026-10-15), n = 360 → $969/mo principal and interest
• wage share = payment / (avg weekly wage $1,025 × 52 / 12 = $4,442) = 22% of one average job's pay (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all covered jobs)
• years of wages = $174,922 / ($1,025 × 52) = 3.3
• price-to-rent = $174,922 / ($1,411 × 12) = 10.3

The wage is one covered job’s average, not a household’s income, so this is the share of a single paycheque and not a mortgage underwriting ratio.

Estimate. Principal and interest on the typical home with 20% down over 30 years at this week's Freddie Mac average rate; compared with the average weekly wage of all jobs covered by unemployment insurance in the area (BLS QCEW), which is pay per job, not household income.

Jobs & wages #

13,164 jobs at 949 employers (2026 Q1); -0.3% jobs and +6.5% average weekly wage over the year

• 61st pct · 1,233rd of 3,221 US counties · median 8,232
• 69th pct · 79th of 254 Texas counties · median 6,022

BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, all ownerships, total covered employment in the quarter's third month; over-the-year changes as published. Suppressed cells stay blank.

Drought #

D1 moderate drought

Sites found: 5, searched within 0 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 0 km away are not.

US Drought Monitor current week; the highest class of any polygon containing the point.

Reservoirs #

Surface water layer not loaded

Sites found: 12, searched within 150 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 150 km away are not.

Σ(capacity × percent full) / Σ capacity over TWDB reservoirs within 150 km. Texas only; elsewhere USGS reservoir elevation/storage is listed without a capacity to normalise by.

Stream gauges #

Surface water layer not loaded

Sites found: 0, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest readings screened against EPA freshwater criteria (DO ≥ 5 mg/L, pH 6.5–9, conductance, turbidity, temperature); NWS flood categories where a NWPS gauge is co-located.

Groundwater #

No USGS monitoring wells within 75 km (or above 1,500 km)

Sites found: 0, searched within 75 km of this place’s internal point. That is a disc around a point, not the area itself: sites outside the boundary are included, and sites inside it further than 75 km away are not.

USGS latest daily water levels. A single latest reading says where the table is, not which way it is moving; select a well for its 365-day trace.

Water stress #

low (0.23)

Σ wᵢ·termᵢ / Σ wᵢ = 0.35×0.25 + 0.3×0.21 / 0.65

Banks & federal dollars #

$918.6 m in deposits at 11 offices of 6 banks (SOD June 2026); HHI 3,409, highly concentrated. $533.3 m federal obligations in FY2026 (direct payments $523.4 m, grants $9.5 m), $40,513 per covered job

Deposit concentration is 3,409 across 6 banks, which the 1995 Department of Justice bank merger screen calls highly concentrated.

HHI = Σ (share %)² over 6 banks with deposits in the county = 43.4² + 37.3² + 9.6² + … (3 more) = 3,409

FDIC Summary of Deposits: deposits at every insured office as of June 30, annual; HHI is the sum of squared county deposit shares (DOJ 1995 bank merger screen: 1000 / 1800). USAspending: obligations by place of performance for the latest complete federal fiscal year (Oct 1 to Sep 30), what agencies committed, not what they paid out; recipients are legal entities. Per-job divides obligations by BLS QCEW covered employment.

Federal obligations #

USAspending place-of-performance obligations for FY2026, by awarding agency.

That is $40,513 per covered job, against 13,164 jobs in the 2026 Q1 QCEW quarter.

per job = FY2026 obligations $533.3 m / 13,164 covered jobs (BLS QCEW 2026 Q1, all ownerships) = $40,513

USAspending obligations are recorded where the work is performed, so a prime award performed here is counted here even when the recipient is headquartered elsewhere. Recipients are legal entities, never people.

National context, not this county #

These are United States, single-gauge, single-state and port series. None of them is keyed to this county.

The indicator registry has no county-keyed series and no geographic selection: every entry is national, a named gauge, a single state or a port. They are here as the backdrop the county's own numbers move against, and they are never this county's readings.

What changed #

Polk County, TX: 12 findings, 2 at a watch level and 10 noted

1. watchPolk County, TX's typical home value is -4.6% against a year earlier, a watch level here: typical home value below a year ago (arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: home.yoyPct = -4.642271778232215 < 0

   arithmetic on Zillow ZHVI, county and metro files; not an official level

2. watchPolk County, TX's covered employment is -0.3% against a year earlier, a watch level here: covered employment below the same quarter a year earlier (BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level). The previous published period is not in this table, so this is a standing level rather than a change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • test: jobs.yoy.emp = -0.3 < 0

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published; not an official level

3. notePolk County, TX's average weekly wage was 6.5% higher than the same quarter a year earlier in 2026 Q1, on BLS QCEW's published over-the-year change.

   Period 2026 Q1.
   Show the arithmetic

   • +6.5 % = BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change for 2026 Q1, as published
   • the newest QCEW file carries no year-earlier level, so no move from one level to another is printed

   BLS QCEW over-the-year percent change, as published

4. notePolk County, TX's typical home value fell 0.7% from $176,185 in August 2026 to $174,922 in September 2026, on Zillow ZHVI.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • -0.7% = (174922.00400068602 - 176184.71360207567) / 176184.71360207567 × 100
   • 174922.00400068602 = Zillow ZHVI, 2026-09
   • 176184.71360207567 = Zillow ZHVI, 2026-08

5. notePolk County, TX's typical asking rent fell 0.6% from $1,419 in August 2026 to $1,411 in September 2026, on Zillow ZORI.

   Period 2026-09.
   Show the arithmetic

   • -0.6% = (1410.5555555555554 - 1419.0970662599432) / 1419.0970662599432 × 100
   • 1410.5555555555554 = Zillow ZORI, 2026-09
   • 1419.0970662599432 = Zillow ZORI, 2026-08

Read all 12 findings in the full brief

Every finding is produced by a fixed rule table and a fixed sentence for each rule. Nothing here is generated prose.